Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
