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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. However, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest field is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions declining and longtime underperformers improving collectively. Under an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still