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China has deployed its maritime law enforcement through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.